Good morning,
Happy Friday. Crude prices took a slight break mid-week due to a massive increase in crude oil inventory in the US. But by end of the week, crude prices found much support from the continued global energy crunch. Natural gas and coal prices continue to scream higher from lack of supply and fears of a cold winter. The main driver comes from green energy projects in Europe and the UK not producing the anticipated outputs calculated going into winter. The world crude producers are continuing to withhold lots of crude oil from the market in order to also keep prices high. Many oil producers have a lot of revenue to make up from the losses in 2020. The FED announced a possible tapering of bond buying in November. However, even a stronger dollar is not weighing on energy prices. I truly believe that energy commodities are in a momentum trade and will hold strong and even go higher until end of the year. But it’s not all doom and gloom. There is a strong scenario on the table predicting that crude prices will start to unwind fairly quickly in Q1-Q2 of next year and fall steady from that point. For now, I believe there will be short-term inflationary pain on crude prices trickling down through natural gas, propane, gasoline, and diesel.
Retail prices for both gasoline and diesel continue to slowly creep higher. Gasoline retail prices are averaging over $3/gallon and diesel retail is nearing $3.49/gallon. As I have been writing for sometime, I believe your pocketbook is going to get a lot lighter fueling up for the next 3-5 months.
Propane prices finally took a breather at current rates. Retail prices are holding over $2/gallon but seem to be in a slight holding pattern now that petro-chem companies are cancelling shipments of propane due to cost. In addition, the lack-luster corn drying season and hot weather is helping to keep propane prices from really taking off. I see that colder weather is in the forecast so demand will start to pick up going into November. The Midwest is in decent shape for propane inventories. Overall supplies are short, but the Midwest seems to be in better shape than some areas. I expect a continued bumpy ride and higher prices on propane for the remainder of the season.
As always, if you have any questions, comments or concerns, please feel free to give us a call. Have a great weekend!
Best regards,
Jon Crawford