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Happy Holidays!

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Good morning!

Happy Friday! I’m going to keep this update fairly short since end of year is a low liquidity market and not very efficient. Crude oil prices dropped back below $70/barrel this week due to continued bearish sentiment. The market is still betting on weak demand and supply surplus in 2025. Local prices of gasoline and diesel have also sold off a bit due to healthy inventories. Expect cheaper retail prices at the pump for holiday travel. Propane prices continue to remain flat as USA demand and exports are increasing with the colder weather.

I will be taking a couple weeks off sending updates over the holidays. Again, the markets have little liquidity and are very inefficient the last two weeks of the year. The reasons are that traders are looking at tax harvesting opportunities and companies are looking at repositioning for starting 2025.

I want to say thank you so much for our customers going into the holiday weeks! We have the best customers in the business and everyone at Crawford Oil and Propane is so very grateful! Thank you to everyone who did business with Crawford Oil and Propane in 2024. We are excited and looking forward to another great year in 2025. I hope everyone has safe holiday travels and enjoys time with friends and family over the next couple of weeks. Happy Holidays and I will talk to you all next year! 🙂

Best regards,

Jon Crawford

First Gain Since November

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Good morning,

Happy Friday!

I hope everyone made it through this week’s cold snap. It was certainly a reminder of winter’s arrival!

WTI crude oil pushed past the $70 per barrel mark this week and is poised to close above $70 for the first time since late November. The market saw a gain in crude prices this week, driven by a mix of shifting forecasts and geopolitical developments. The IEA surprised many by reversing its stance, now projecting increased crude oil demand in 2025. Canada is optimistic about rising U.S. consumption, anticipating that falling interest rates will boost manufacturing activity. The Biden administration imposed additional sanctions on Iran to further limit its crude exports. China increased crude imports for the first time in seven months, driven by expectations of monetary easing. However, some speculate this could simply be stockpiling at current lower prices. Interestingly, OPEC has adjusted its outlook downward, now predicting lower crude consumption after months of forecasting demand growth. Energy agencies and producers are presenting mixed projections, reflecting uncertainty across the board.

On the geopolitical front, the Trump administration is considering strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities if negotiations fail. Meanwhile, global refining capacity is expanding, with the world’s largest refinery opening in Nigeria this week. This facility, which is 33% larger than the largest refinery in America and designed for direct exports, adds competitive pressure on OPEC.

In the U.S., inflation edged slightly higher in November, further solidifying expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next meeting. Trump’s cabinet picks and proposed policies could drive greater demand for gasoline and diesel. In addition, the EIA reported a draw in crude inventories but significant builds in gasoline and diesel stocks this week. The data in the US is predicting a lower dollar with stronger demand giving cause to higher crude oil prices.

Despite these developments, I remain bearish on crude oil heading into Q1 2025. The lowest prices of the year may occur early next year, although I anticipate a rebound in crude oil prices later in the year.

The Chicago spot market is well-supplied and has returned to a balanced state, with basis levels between the Chicago and Group markets now similar. While the rising price of crude oil has nudged up gasoline and diesel costs, I expect only modest increases at the pump. Prices should remain relatively low during the holiday travel season. For diesel customers, please ensure your supplier is properly blending diesel fuel for winter conditions. For stored diesel, blending with #1 ULSD is strongly advised to avoid issues during prolonged cold spells. For diesel purchased at gas stations, confirm the blending strategy in use to ensure reliable operation, especially as temperatures dip below zero in January.

Propane costs edged slightly higher this week but remain within a narrow trading range as winter adds seasonal volatility to pricing. There are currently no supply issues expected to cause significant price increases. As a reminder, please ensure driveways are clear of snow and ice, and there is an accessible path to your propane tank to allow for safe and efficient deliveries. In cases of heavy snowfall, we may be unable to complete deliveries if access is obstructed. We appreciate your cooperation and are happy to communicate if any challenges arise!

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please don’t hesitate to give us a call.

Have a great weekend!

Best regards,

Jon Crawford

Meeting Expectations

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Good morning,

Happy Friday! This week’s crude oil and refined products market updates were relatively uneventful. WTI crude oil failed to break through the $70 per barrel mark, as bearish sentiment continues to dominate. The volume of traders shorting crude oil futures for 2025 is on the rise, reflecting widespread skepticism about a near-term price recovery. China’s economy remains stagnant, with crude oil inventories already near capacity. While the U.S. economy remains strong, U.S. crude oil production is also highly robust, adding to downward pressure on prices. OPEC+ announced that current production cuts will remain in place through Q1 of 2025, with a gradual unwinding of cuts extended into 2026. However, since this move was already priced into the market, crude oil prices actually dipped following the announcement. On the geopolitical front, Israel and Lebanon have been relatively quiet, and news from the Russia-Ukraine conflict was limited. In light of these factors, I remain short on crude oil going into 2025. A move toward surplus inventories seems likely, with a high probability of WTI crude falling below $65 per barrel. That said, I do not expect these lows to hold for the entire year. A rebound to the $70–$75 per barrel range by mid-to-late 2025 seems plausible.

In local news, inventories of gasoline and diesel are plentiful, and prices continue to trend downward. I anticipate these lower pump prices will persist through the busy holiday travel season. For diesel consumers, I want to remind you of the importance of ensuring your supplier is treating diesel with the correct additives. Additionally, I strongly recommend blending #2 diesel with #1 diesel, as sudden cold snaps can occur, and blending helps ensure vehicles start and remain operational during harsh winter conditions.

Propane prices remain steady despite ample supplies, as demand has picked up with colder temperatures in early December. Traders are cautious about allowing propane prices to fall further at this time. As a friendly reminder, snow and ice can create challenges for propane deliveries. Please ensure that driveways are clear and there is an accessible path to your propane tank. This will help us deliver your propane safely and efficiently. Thank you for your cooperation!

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please don’t hesitate to reach out. Have a great weekend!

Best regards,
Jon Crawford

Black Friday Clouds On The Horizon

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Good afternoon,

Happy Friday! I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving! One notable perk of this year’s holiday was the drop in fuel prices at the pump. As we approach the end of the year, the outlook suggests that lower fuel prices may persist for a while longer. Crude oil prices closed firmly below $68 per barrel heading into the Thanksgiving weekend, reinforcing a bearish sentiment in the market. Crude oil inventories worldwide are expected to move into surplus in 2025, driven by stagnant demand growth in China and other regions. Chinese GDP growth remains flat, with stimulus measures viewed as short-term fixes rather than pathways to sustained recovery. Chinese crude imports and refinery runs are both decreasing, reflecting a sluggish economic environment.

Further downward pressure came from President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs: a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. These tariffs strengthened the U.S. dollar, which in turn pushed crude oil prices lower. However, many analysts believe Trump’s move is a negotiation tactic aimed at bringing other countries to the table. Tariffs on Canadian crude oil imports could lead to significant price increases in parts of the U.S. due to the dependence of many refiners on Canadian crude, but negotiations are already underway with leaders from China, Mexico, and Canada. Meanwhile, OPEC+ delayed their production quota meeting from December 1 to December 5, with traders anticipating that current voluntary production cuts will remain in place. The U.S. continues to set records as the world’s largest oil producer, now exceeding 13 million barrels per day—a milestone no other country has reached. Even with significant spare capacity in OPEC+, American producers and other oil-exporting nations have pledged to maintain a price floor, likely around $60 per barrel.

On the geopolitical front, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has reduced tensions in the Middle East, though some violations have already been reported. Escalation between Russia and Ukraine remains the only significant bullish factor in the market, though the conflict appears to be losing momentum. Both Russia and Ukraine have expressed interest in negotiating peace under a Trump administration. Additionally, Trump’s proposed sanctions on Iran are set to go into effect on day one of his presidency. These sanctions could significantly reduce Iran’s export revenue and weaken financial support for groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Satellite technology is now effectively tracking Iran’s use of ghost ships and mid-ocean cargo transfers, further tightening enforcement.

Overall, the crude oil market is decidedly bearish, with a price floor likely around $60 per barrel. I expect WTI crude to trade between $65 and $75 per barrel in the long term. With global refining capacity steadily recovering, there appears to be no urgency to lock in futures prices at this time.

The BP Whiting refinery issue has largely been resolved, with the Chicago Spot Market realigning with the Group Spot. Both markets have moved to the January futures contract, and pricing has stabilized. I anticipate that these lower pump prices will continue through the holiday season. For those looking to lock in fuel prices for next year, January and February may provide the best opportunities.

Propane prices remain well-supported due to early cold weather and robust export demand. While crude oil prices have dropped below $70 per barrel, propane prices have ticked slightly higher. This firmness is driven by strong demand, signs of low natural gas inventories in Europe, and the potential for increased exports if China experiences a colder winter. Additionally, the proposed 25% tariff on Canadian propane, if implemented in February, could send spot market rail propane prices sharply higher. Customers who contracted propane for the winter are well-positioned. For those who have not yet contracted, I recommend filling tanks before Christmas week to avoid potential price volatility later in the season.

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to reach out.

Best regards,

Jon Crawford

Over-Supply Jitters Running Wild

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Good afternoon,

Happy Friday! This week, crude oil prices stabilized after the initial fizzle of the “Trump Trade.” Prices traded in a narrow range as the market digested a wave of economic data. WTI hovered near $70 per barrel, reflecting a delicate balance between bearish sentiment and potential geopolitical risks. China’s economic struggles continue to weigh heavily on crude prices. While Chinese home prices appear to be stabilizing, overall crude demand remains weak. GDP growth is stagnant, and stimulus packages are viewed as temporary fixes rather than drivers of sustainable economic growth. Chinese crude imports are flat, refinery runs are declining, and the world’s second-largest economy appears to be stuck in a holding pattern.

Meanwhile, the IEA, OPEC, and other financial institutions revised their outlooks for global crude oil inventories. Many now predict a surplus throughout all of 2025, extending earlier projections that anticipated surpluses only in the first half of the year. This shift is driven by weaker-than-expected Chinese demand and announcements of increased production from OPEC countries like Iraq and the UAE. Additionally, Mexico’s state-owned oil company received a government bailout to maintain its output, and the U.S. under the Trump administration is expected to accelerate leasing for Gulf oil production. With U.S. output already at 16 million barrels per day, the potential for a significant global glut is growing.

However, refining capacity could emerge as a counterbalance to rising crude inventories. Refineries around the globe are shutting down due to environmental regulations, economic pressures, or geopolitical issues. In the U.S., particularly California, refinery closures are accelerating due to strict environmental policies. China and Russia have also scaled back refinery operations, while Indonesia is adding new facilities. As a result, global refining capacity may move into deficit, which could support prices even in the face of higher crude inventories. Additionally, many American oil companies remain focused on disciplined production and shareholder returns rather than aggressive drilling campaigns. While “drill baby drill” may be a rallying cry under Trump’s pro-oil stance, U.S. producers are unlikely to flood the market in ways that significantly depress prices.

While geopolitical risks remain, many believe they are diminishing as Trump prepares to take office. Israel is continuing operations in Lebanon, but Iran has reached out to the U.S. to deny involvement in an alleged assassination plot against Trump. Trump’s expected tightening of sanctions on Iran could reduce Iranian oil exports, further tightening supply. Ukraine and Russia remain locked in conflict, but there are rumors that Trump is already negotiating a peace treaty ahead of his inauguration. Russian President Putin has even met with German Chancellor Scholz to discuss potential peace terms.

One wildcard is Trump’s proposed tariff strategy, including high tariffs on Chinese goods and smaller tariffs on imports from other nations. These measures could stoke inflation, potentially leading to a recession and lower refined product consumption. However, the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates to counter inflation, weakening the dollar and supporting higher crude prices. At present, bearish sentiment dominates the news cycle, but there are many moving parts as we approach the start of Trump’s presidency in 2025.

In the Chicago market, spot basis for gasoline has finally eased after refinery maintenance was completed, bringing healthier supplies back online. With harvest demand winding down, prices are starting to fall as we head into the holiday season. Gasoline and diesel prices at the pump are likely to remain stable. If crude oil prices hold steady through year-end, we can expect some price relief at the pump for holiday travel.

Propane prices remain stable but are edging slightly higher as winter demand begins. Despite high national inventories, increased export capacity is keeping the market balanced. Weather forecasts consistently predict an average to colder-than-average winter, which is notable given that recent winters have been warmer than normal. For now, no major surprises are expected going into the holiday season.

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to reach out. Have a great weekend!

Best regards,

Jon Crawford

Unwinding the Trump Trade

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Happy Friday!

This week’s big news was, of course, the U.S. Presidential Election, with Donald Trump emerging as the winner. Markets responded swiftly, pricing in what’s been termed the “Trump Trade.” Following the election, the stock market surged. While equities saw gains, crude oil prices remained relatively flat. Initial price support came from the potential for a hurricane in the Gulf, coupled with the anticipation of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. However, as the hurricane threat subsided, crude prices began to decline as the “Trump Trade” took effect, with traders anticipating that Trump’s pro-oil stance might put downward pressure on crude prices.

Despite this, WTI crude prices held above the psychological support level of $70 per barrel. Along with China releasing continued poor economic data with weak stimulus, the Fed cut rates by another 25 basis points, and Chairman Powell stated he would not step down if requested by President Trump. Additionally, Trump is expected to exert significant pressure on Iran’s crude oil exports. Although Saudi Arabia could potentially fill any supply gaps, it’s unclear whether OPEC, alongside U.S. producers, would be interested in driving crude prices downward. As the dollar retreats from recent highs, crude oil becomes more expensive, which further supports prices. Should Trump successfully implement additional tax cuts and navigate the complexities of tariffs, American oil consumption could rise.

For these reasons, the “Trump Trade” has not pushed crude prices as low as some had anticipated. In fact, many traders predict that WTI will remain within the $70–$80 per barrel range throughout next year. I tend to agree; while the Trump administration may be “pro-oil,” this stance may not necessarily translate to lower crude prices.

In local news, the Chicago Spot Market has stabilized relative to the Group Spot market, and the harvest season is nearing completion without major disruptions. Prices traded steadily this week, so I do not expect significant changes at the pump in the coming days.

As for propane, it remains steady. Inventory levels are high, but any uptick in Chinese demand could lead to a surge in exports. Additionally, there’s caution surrounding the winter forecast, which suggests colder-than-average temperatures and above-average precipitation. For now, we enjoy the transition from autumn into the holiday season and await what the winter may bring.

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please don’t hesitate to reach out. Have a great weekend!

Best regards,

Jon Crawford

Continued Yo-Yo Effect

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Good morning!

Happy Friday! I hope that everyone had a safe and fun Halloween! Crude oil prices went on a wild ride this week, but again are looking to end where they started. Crude prices skyrocketed on Monday after Israel performed retaliatory strikes on Iran. After crude prices moved higher on potential supply disruptions in Iran, crude oil prices collapsed. In fact, crude oil prices fell the most in one day over the past six months! Israel only attacked military sites and not any nuclear or oil facilities in Iran. Therefore, the markets interpreted the retaliation as Israel not wanting to escalate the conflict any further. Rumors started floating that Israel was willing to consider a ceasefire in Gaza. However, Israel continued strikes in Gaza and Lebanon this week. But then in a head-fake, Iran announced today that they are planning a retaliation strike on Israel for the bombing of their military sites on Monday. The news pushed WTI crude price back over $70/barrel. In more geopolitical news, Russia is looking to send North Korean troops into battle in the Kursk region in Russia that Ukraine currently occupies. The potential for further escalation involving North Korea put more risk premium from the war in Ukraine back into the market. In world economic news, China’s economy seems to be rebounding. Economic analysts are now calling for increased crude oil demand in China. I have been writing about this for months! I said China would fix their economic problems. They are a huge economy with many tools in the box to spur growth. With only a week of positive economic news, the markets changed their next year outlook after six previous months of poor economic data! The US continues to be producing crude at a record pace and supply seems to be healthy. In addition, OPEC announced that they might kick the can down the road for increasing crude oil outputs. I was optimistic that Saudi Arabia would try and lead the charge to not increase production this month. At this point, OPEC is looking to review in January. Again, WTI crude oil price is stuck in a $5/barrel trading range. There is definitely some value in the market at these current prices. The “Election Trade” is a complete crapshoot and predictions are all over the map where crude prices go after November 5th. I am a bit more bullish on crude oil prices moving forward due to continued loss of refineries. Crude supply is healthy, but refineries are continuing to shut down even as new ones come online. At the current rate, refining capacity looks to possibly decline in the coming year. Therefore, regardless of crude oil price, low refining capacity will prop up gasoline and diesel prices.

In local news, the Chicago spot market is experiencing some supply tightness as harvest cleans up. Our neighbors in the Group are experiencing lower diesel prices due to being ahead with their harvest. I expect Chicago spot prices for diesel to fall back below the Group by the end of November. Gasoline prices continue to trade in a narrow range along with the price of crude. I do not expect to see any major changes on the the retail price of gasoline and diesel next week.

Propane prices are starting to move higher even though supply is very robust. The potential for further exports and production cuts in the coming months is possible if crude oil prices move lower. In addition, the weather is looking to spur early winter heating demand. We are already getting to the point where contract price and spot price are about the same. Again, if you are not contracted for the heated season, I recommend filling your tank and contracting at least some of your heating needs for the season to protect from potential basis blowouts.

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to give us a call. Have a great weekend!

Best regards,

Jon Crawford

Steady As She Goes

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Happy Friday!

This week’s crude oil trade was largely influenced by geopolitical news, although the trading itself was relatively uneventful. Crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with WTI briefly dipping below $70 per barrel before recovering to end the week at a fairly flat level. Despite continued disappointing economic data and stimulus efforts from China, both the IEA and OPEC have issued projections for increased oil demand in China, creating a mix of perspectives on China’s future economic health. Headlines continue to lean bullish for crude oil demand, even as some traders predict a slower year in 2025. Global geopolitical tensions have provided price support and established a solid price floor for crude oil.

Among this week’s key developments, there was an attempted attack on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s home, prompting Israel to intensify its strikes in Lebanon and Gaza. Israel is now considering more aggressive actions against Iran in response. Additionally, reports emerged indicating that Russia has supported Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, and North Korean troops have reportedly entered Russia, with many speculating that they may join the fighting in Ukraine. If North Korean forces are drawn into the Ukraine conflict, this would represent one of the highest levels of escalation since the war began. Meanwhile, domestic inventories of crude oil and refined products have remained stable, even with peak harvest season underway. Overall, crude oil prices traded within a narrow band this week and are likely to end the week relatively unchanged.

In the Chicago market, the diesel spot basis has realigned with the Group market, providing some price relief for diesel despite strong demand from the harvest season. Gasoline spot prices also maintained their lower differential compared to the Group. I anticipate that diesel retail prices may dip slightly, while gasoline retail prices should remain steady.

Propane inventories saw a decline last week as crop drying demand ramped up. However, propane prices have held steady overall. If you haven’t yet secured a propane contract for the winter, I recommend contracting at least a portion of your expected usage. For those without contracts, it’s a good time to consider filling your tank.

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please don’t hesitate to reach out. Have a great weekend!

Best regards,

Jon Crawford

Crude Oil Prices Drop Over 6% On The Week

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Good morning,

Happy Friday!

Crude oil prices took a significant hit this week. Over the weekend, Israel reportedly announced they would not be attacking Iranian oil infrastructure, deflating the potential supply shock that had caused last week’s price surge. At the same time, weak Chinese economic data continues to drag down market sentiment. Despite stimulus packages targeting housing and economic recovery, markets remain unconvinced that China will bounce back anytime soon. Chinese factory output continues to decline, and imports of refined products have reached a 15-month low. Refinery runs, particularly on diesel, are also decreasing. Moreover, China has missed its 5% GDP growth target for six consecutive quarters. Given China’s role as one of the world’s largest oil consumers, traders are now flipping their positions on crude oil futures.

Adding to the bearish outlook, OPEC has reversed its position on future oil demand, now forecasting that peak oil demand could arrive as early as 2030. This, combined with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) similar projections, sent shockwaves through day trading, pushing WTI crude oil prices below the critical psychological floor of $70 per barrel. Even though the EIA reported draws in U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories, the broader global bearish sentiment overpowered any potential bullish news from the U.S. With Middle East tensions easing, discussions of peak oil demand gaining traction, and China’s continued economic downturn, crude oil prices are struggling to find firm support.

In local news, the Chicago spot basis for gasoline has returned to normal levels, with gasoline spot prices holding lower relative to the NYMEX. I expect these lower retail gasoline prices to hold or potentially decline into next week. On the diesel front, the Chicago spot basis remains in sync with the NYMEX, but supplies are strong. Current data indicates that the Chicago market has enough diesel supply to meet harvest demand in the coming weeks, so I don’t foresee significant changes in diesel retail prices in the near term.

Propane inventories remain at record highs nationwide, but forecasts for a colder-than-normal winter are keeping prices relatively stable. The good news is that with such high inventory levels, even a harsh winter will be manageable in terms of supply. If you haven’t topped off your propane tank yet, I still recommend doing so. We are also still offering propane contracts for the coming winter, and I suggest contracting at least some of your heating needs. Propane prices tend to spike at least once every winter, and locking in now could protect you from paying higher prices during those periods.

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please don’t hesitate to give us a call.

Best regards,

Jon Crawford

Getting Sick On A Roller Coaster

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Good morning,

Happy Friday! This week has been a roller coaster for crude oil prices. WTI crude is holding steady near $75 per barrel after a week of extreme price swings, including a $3 per barrel spike in one day. Prices fluctuated dramatically throughout the week, driven by a barrage of conflicting information that left traders scrambling. By Friday, the market seemed to take a breather, with traders digesting the week’s events. China introduced additional economic stimulus, but markets largely dismissed it as insufficient, leading to a drop in crude prices. Then, Israel abruptly canceled a meeting with the U.S. to discuss a potential military response to Iran, heightening geopolitical tensions. While Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu did meet with President Biden, many believe Israel is preparing to target Iran’s oil infrastructure. Meanwhile, Ukraine launched more attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure. In the U.S., inflation showed signs of cooling, though not enough to calm concerns. The minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting revealed that several Fed Board members were against the aggressive half-point rate cut, adding further uncertainty. This instability in Fed monetary policy sent crude oil on a wild ride. To complicate matters further, Hurricane Milton pummeled Florida, following closely on the heels of Hurricane Helene. Despite all this volatility, demand for crude oil remains strong, as indicated by the latest EIA inventory report. Some traders are beginning to anticipate a scenario where stagflation develops, but still drives economic spending, which could increase crude oil demand. However, the biggest issue on the horizon for crude prices is the potential conflict between Israel and Iran. Should Israel target Iran’s oil supply, we could see up to a $20 per barrel price shock until Saudi Arabia can ramp up production to offset the supply shortfall.

In local news, the Chicago Spot Market mirrored the volatility of the NYMEX. The Chicago basis fluctuated wildly as harvest demand picked up, refinery maintenance updates were announced, and the potential supply crunch from Hurricane Milton was assessed. However, by the end of the week, diesel and gasoline prices returned to where they started. Supply levels in the Midwest appear healthy, and as of now, I don’t foresee a significant spike in refined fuel costs related to harvest demand. Barring an escalation in the Israel-Iran situation, I do not expect major changes in retail prices over the coming week.

Propane inventories remain at record highs, but forecasts for a colder winter continue to roll in. I continue to strongly recommend topping off your propane tank and locking in some of your winter usage now to protect against a potential price spike this winter.

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to give us a call.

Best regards,

Jon Crawford