I hope everyone had an enjoyable Christmas yesterday. Just wanted to take a moment and wish everyone a safe and Happy New Year! Thank you to all our customers in 2019. We have the best customers around and enjoy working hard to ensure the best possible customer experience! We hope 2020 is full of laughter and success!
From everyone at Crawford Oil and Propane
Good morning!
Happy Friday! So WTI closed above $60/barrel this week and held. The move higher is being mostly blamed on sentiment and not fundamentals. In addition, trading volume is light at the end of the year, so I have caution that this will hold into 2020. All eyes are on trade deals, the FED, and end of year economic data. For now, I always tell people to close their eyes, enjoy the holidays, and we will revisit after New Year’s. 🙂
In local news, gasoline prices continue to have a wide range across the market. Retail prices on gasoline are ranging from $2.19 – 2.59! Diesel prices are holding steady below $3/gallon and I expect to see that trend continue. Hopefully we will see these lower prices through the holiday travel season.
Propane prices dropped off a bit with ease in supply problems. In addition, warm weather is on the horizon which is putting a lid on price increases. Propane prices are truly following the price of crude, but supply fundamentals are keeping propane in check. If you are a will-call customer, please make sure to call when your tank is around 30%. We are very busy this time of year and we want to ensure efficient delivery to your home. 🙂
As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to give us a call!
Best regards,
Jon Crawford – Pres.
Good morning!
I hope this message finds everyone well and ready for the weekend. Crude prices went on the positive this week on news that the US/China were going to FINALLY complete a major trade deal. The news, like usual, sparked a rally on crude and the stock market. Details of the possible deal included no new tariffs on China and relief on previous tariffs. WTI Crude was JUST about to break through $60/barrel when the news came that the current 25% tariffs on China will remain, however, no new tariffs will be applied. The news cooled off the crude market. WTI struggles to find the footing to leg higher above $60/barrel. Even the FED chimed in this week and said that they are planning on not raising rates which make crude prices go up. For now, it’s looking like crude prices are going to stay in a narrow range below $60/barrel.
In local retail news, gasoline and diesel prices are all over the map. Some markets are $2.49/gallon on gasoline and others within 15 miles are $2.19/gallon. The spreads are ugly and some markets are losing money. Diesel prices are all over the map as well depending on whether the diesel is treated for winter or not. Don’t let cheap diesel prices fool you! The retailer might not be blending for winter and we are finding that treatment is already needed on these single digit nights. Make sure to ask your local gas station how they are treating their diesel.
Propane supply has rounded the corner and getting much better. Prices have stabilized as well. We appreciate everyone’s patience over the past two months as we navigated one of the worst supply crunches since 2014. Our company has already made changes based on the experience this year to gain access to even more product during a possible supply crunch in the future. Anytime there is a major incident, I try to find the positive and improve. Please make sure if you are a call-in customer to call when your tank is above 30% to ensure an efficient delivery.
If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to give us a call.
Best regards,
Jon Crawford
Good afternoon,
Earlier today, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production cuts to 1.7M barrels of oil. The increase from 1.2M to 1.7M was a surprise to the markets, but the devil is in the details. When you look at the past six months and the reported quotas from members of OPEC, the daily average was actually close to 1.7M barrels per day. Due to Saudi Arabia and others cutting more than promised, the deal, although higher in posted cuts, is actually not much of a change from current market conditions. In addition, waivers were granted for condensates which lessens the blow on the market. Saudi Arabia announced they will continue to cut an additional 400k barrels/day off their runs which could make the cut closer to 2.1M barrels/day. But time will tell. Saudi Arabia received their evaluation for Aramco and is looking to go public with a 5% stake in their 1.7 trillion dollar evaluated state owned company. OPEC+ is planning on meeting again on March 5th, 2020 to reevaluate the market conditions. Crude prices jumped higher on the announcement but not as high as expected. Then the US Jobs report was released as well as rumors of a China/US trade deal. All the combined news today pushed WTI crude prices to $59/barrel. However, WTI is still struggling to regain the highs reached earlier in the year. Even though the news today was very bullish crude, the continued high prices will allow the US shale producers to hold their record production levels keeping overall crude supplies in balance. At this time, I don’t see crude prices making any runs higher to end the year unless an epic US/China trade deal is reached.
Retail gasoline and diesel prices relaxed a bit to start the week, but clawed back much of the cost by the week’s end. I don’t expect to see much price movement at the pump over the coming week.
Propane supply is starting to improve since the CN Railroad ended their strike last week. Propane prices have held firm even though crude prices have risen. There is still an abundance of propane available in the country and production is healthy. Plus, warmer than average weather continues to show up in our area keeping propane prices from rising any further. Next week we will experience a two-day cold snap, but that looks to be about it for cold weather in the coming weeks.
As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to give us a call.
Best regards,
Jon Crawford