Energy Prices Holding Firm

Good morning,

Energy prices are holding firm to end the week.  The FED announced this week that regardless of tapering or raising rates, inflation is going to persist into 2022 because of supply bottlenecks.  The domino effects of these supply constraints are supporting energy prices.  In addition, there is a huge supply crunch on fossil fuel energy due to Europe’s and UK’s miscalculations of green energy production.  They have fallen short on their green production and are in need of more fossil fuels.  And the purchases just can’t be fulfilled quick enough.  Although China is shutting down parts of their economy due to record high coal prices, some supply might be able to shift.  But these types of moves take months to sort themselves out.  Also, equities are starting to spook some investors and there is a lot of chatter saying to throw your money into energy for a quick return on your money in Q4 and possibly Q1 of 2022.  Therefore we have speculation money supporting crude prices as well.  Unfortunately, I am bullish on crude prices until the end of the year.  I just don’t see a situation where enough cards can can fall fast enough to drag down crude prices.  I do believe that there is downside risk in 2022.   I do not see these high prices persisting all the way through 2022.

Local retail prices on gasoline hold near $3/gallon and diesel retail has well surpassed $3/gallon.  Unfortunately with well supported crude prices as previously discussed, I believe these prices over $3/gallon are here to stay for some time.

Propane prices continued to gain momentum based on record low inventories going into the heating season coupled with a major fire in Canada.  Propane prices in September are at an all-time record high.  One can only hope that crude prices stabilize and the damage of index price spikes are mitigated to pockets here and there throughout winter.  Unfortunately, propane prices are going to be high this year.  Like crude oil, I am hopeful that supply and demand economics going into spring of 2022 will balance out bring some price relief for next heating season.  In the meantime, it’s not too late to lock in your heating cost for the upcoming season.

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to give us a call.

Best regards,

Jon Crawford

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