OPEC, Chicago Pipeline, and Propane Supply

Good morning,

Crude oil prices have continued to rally on OPEC’s compliance to cuts. Saudi Arabia and Russia continue to commit verbally to cuts through all 2018. However, OPEC has not taken an official position to extend the cuts past March of 2018. Many investors are buying into the market on this news causing WTI to near the next resistance price of $55/barrel. However, the U.S. has continued to increase production and exportation. The U.S. completed their first shipment of crude oil to India. The U.S. crude oil production will set a new record by year’s end and does not show any signs of slowing down, especially with their new customers in Asia. As long as the spreads between WTI and Brent continue to be wide, the U.S. will continue to have the advantage on the open market while forcing OPEC to discount their exports. The geopolitical issues of the Middle East and North Korea seem to be in check and not offering to many purchase jitters. Without any significant change in demand or production, I don’t see WTI being able to push through $55/barrel. Time will tell.

In local news, the Explorer pipeline carrying gasoline out of Chicago went down last week causing the price of gasoline to spike over 30 cents/gallon. Retail prices will continue to climb dramatically until the issue is resolved. Right now there is no news on a completion date of the repair. We are hoping by the end of next week. In the meantime, I would prepare for temporary high retail prices on gasoline. Diesel cost was mildly affected, but supplies seem to be more ample. Once the repairs are completed and the refinery issues in Chicago are completed, I expect over a 35-40 cent/gallon drop in gasoline cost and potentially 10-15 cent drop in diesel cost. Hopefully everything will be back to normal before Thanksgiving and the start of holiday driving season.

Propane supplies had their first disruption this week as well. The West leg of a major pipeline went down for repairs causing massive outages across the Midwest. These outages caused companies to move across State lines and emptied supplies at some terminals in Wisconsin. We are supplied through multiple terminals, including various rail terminals which are strictly allocated. Therefore access to supply is not currently an issue for Crawford Propane. Prices for propane surprisingly have peaked for a bit. However, those who contracted as advised are sitting very good so far this year. There is some potential for price relief in November if temperatures warm up and corn drying diminishes.

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to give us a call.

Best regards,

Jon Crawford – Pres.
Crawford Oil and Propane

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