Happy start to 2020!
I hope everyone had a great holiday season and enjoyed a safe and fun New Year celebration. 2019 was a wild year for crude oil and the energy markets. I expect more of the same in 2020. The big events we will be watching in 2020 are economic growth in China and the US surrounding trade agreements, growing unrest in Iraq/Iran/Syria, the FED making any changes to monetary policy, OPEC+ holding to their proposed production cuts, and the US ability to continue at current production runs. Needless to say, there are a lot of factors to be watching in 2020. And if anyone had a crystal ball to call crude prices correctly, I would call them lucky! 🙂
For what it’s worth, the year of a presidential run usually leads to lower energy costs. This is a pattern of the past that seems to hold true. Therefore, I’m not calling for any major upside risk in crude prices in 2020 at this time. Now this is based on all the above scenarios playing out correctly. I do believe the world economic growth will maintain but nothing major in calling for more crude oil demand. I believe that unrest in the Middle East will stay contained as Iran knows the US election is coming. The FED will not throw any major wrenches in the mix, at least not enough to chart a new course for crude prices. OPEC+ will argue over production cuts and I do not think that Russia and others will maintain their proposed cuts. I also think that US production will be capped at around current levels. If the US production falls, I definitely see Russia jumping in to pick up that market share.
Therefore, in my opinion, I don’t see any urgency in locking in prices for 2020 at this time. I will continue to update as we move into the new year. I’m excited for 2020 and looking forward to challenges and opportunities. I wish all the best to everyone and hope that 2020 brings prosperity, enjoyment, and lots of laughter!
As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to give us a call.
Best regards,
Jon Crawford