Tug of War

Good morning,

Crude prices this week are stuck in a game of “Tug of War” right now between geopolitical issues and true fundamentals.  Global recession fears are weighing on traders’ minds as we end the year which is keeping “Big Money” from going long on crude.  The fears are weighed by China/US trade war, disappointing economic data, and BREXIT drama.  Not to mention that Saudi Arabia and Russia continue to make headlines which have potential for supply issues.  But in true fundamentals, the US exported more crude than consumed last month.  So there are buyers out there.  It’s a head scratcher.  Big Money is stuck on short positions right now which I think will hold until the end of the year.  I feel that money managers are going to look at January as a potential entry point on crude.  So for now, enjoy the Christmas gift that the traders have given us!  But when Big Money enters the market, be prepared for a quick increase in crude prices.  And I do believe it’s not a matter of “if”, but “when”.

Retail prices on gasoline and diesel have stabilized for the moment.  We are looking at around $2.15/gallon on gasoline and $3.00/gallon on diesel.  I think that these prices will hold potentially for the end of the month.

Propane prices have also stabilized but are starting to carve out the potential for an uptick.  Demand is rip-roaring right now.  The current warm spell is looking to end by Christmas, with the potential for colder than normal coming back, including a possible Polar Vortex in early January.  As always, please make sure your driveway is clear and there is a path to your tank this winter.

If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to give us a call.

Best regards,

Jon Crawford – Pres.

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