Good morning!
Happy Friday! I hope that everyone had a safe and fun Halloween! Crude oil prices went on a wild ride this week, but again are looking to end where they started. Crude prices skyrocketed on Monday after Israel performed retaliatory strikes on Iran. After crude prices moved higher on potential supply disruptions in Iran, crude oil prices collapsed. In fact, crude oil prices fell the most in one day over the past six months! Israel only attacked military sites and not any nuclear or oil facilities in Iran. Therefore, the markets interpreted the retaliation as Israel not wanting to escalate the conflict any further. Rumors started floating that Israel was willing to consider a ceasefire in Gaza. However, Israel continued strikes in Gaza and Lebanon this week. But then in a head-fake, Iran announced today that they are planning a retaliation strike on Israel for the bombing of their military sites on Monday. The news pushed WTI crude price back over $70/barrel. In more geopolitical news, Russia is looking to send North Korean troops into battle in the Kursk region in Russia that Ukraine currently occupies. The potential for further escalation involving North Korea put more risk premium from the war in Ukraine back into the market. In world economic news, China’s economy seems to be rebounding. Economic analysts are now calling for increased crude oil demand in China. I have been writing about this for months! I said China would fix their economic problems. They are a huge economy with many tools in the box to spur growth. With only a week of positive economic news, the markets changed their next year outlook after six previous months of poor economic data! The US continues to be producing crude at a record pace and supply seems to be healthy. In addition, OPEC announced that they might kick the can down the road for increasing crude oil outputs. I was optimistic that Saudi Arabia would try and lead the charge to not increase production this month. At this point, OPEC is looking to review in January. Again, WTI crude oil price is stuck in a $5/barrel trading range. There is definitely some value in the market at these current prices. The “Election Trade” is a complete crapshoot and predictions are all over the map where crude prices go after November 5th. I am a bit more bullish on crude oil prices moving forward due to continued loss of refineries. Crude supply is healthy, but refineries are continuing to shut down even as new ones come online. At the current rate, refining capacity looks to possibly decline in the coming year. Therefore, regardless of crude oil price, low refining capacity will prop up gasoline and diesel prices.
In local news, the Chicago spot market is experiencing some supply tightness as harvest cleans up. Our neighbors in the Group are experiencing lower diesel prices due to being ahead with their harvest. I expect Chicago spot prices for diesel to fall back below the Group by the end of November. Gasoline prices continue to trade in a narrow range along with the price of crude. I do not expect to see any major changes on the the retail price of gasoline and diesel next week.
Propane prices are starting to move higher even though supply is very robust. The potential for further exports and production cuts in the coming months is possible if crude oil prices move lower. In addition, the weather is looking to spur early winter heating demand. We are already getting to the point where contract price and spot price are about the same. Again, if you are not contracted for the heated season, I recommend filling your tank and contracting at least some of your heating needs for the season to protect from potential basis blowouts.
As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to give us a call. Have a great weekend!
Best regards,
Jon Crawford