Good morning,
Happy Friday! Oil prices reached their lowest levels of the year this week, effectively erasing all gains in WTI pricing for 2024. China’s ongoing reduction in oil imports, coupled with lackluster economic data from both Europe and the U.S., has fueled concerns of a potential oil surplus. As summer demand in the U.S. fades, the possibility of an overall oil surplus is gaining traction. Both the U.S. and Canada continue to produce oil at record levels, while Libya has resumed production and started exporting once again.
Despite some bullish data, the sentiment remains overwhelmingly bearish as news of a potential crude oil surplus in Q4 of 2024 continues to dominate the market. The EIA reported a significant drawdown in U.S. crude oil inventories, and many refiners are entering maintenance in Q4, leading to reduced refining runs. However, even these bullish reports couldn’t significantly alter the market’s course. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, which could make crude oil more expensive. OPEC+ made a surprise announcement that production increases may not occur until December, and Kazakhstan is experiencing production slowdowns due to technical issues and maintenance. But these bullish developments provided only brief support for prices.
Geopolitical factors are also beginning to contribute to the bearish outlook. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his willingness to discuss peace under specific terms. If a peace deal or ceasefire is reached between Ukraine and Russia, the unrestricted flow of Russian oil could further heighten the risk of a global oil surplus. As a result, the economics of crude oil are increasingly pointing toward a bearish trend. WTI prices have fallen below $70 per barrel, and while speculative, based on current fundamentals, a drop below $60 per barrel is possible in Q4 of 2024 or Q1 of 2025.
On the local front, the Chicago spot market basis has collapsed alongside the decline in crude oil prices. Gasoline and diesel prices have fallen to their lowest levels of the year, with retail gasoline prices dipping below $3 per gallon in some local markets. Diesel prices are also approaching sub-$3.29 per gallon levels for the first time this year. While demand is decreasing as children return to school, motorists can expect to enjoy lower prices at the pump for at least the coming weeks.
Propane prices, once again, did not follow the downward trend of crude oil. As previously mentioned, the propane price percentage relative to crude oil still has room to increase before we see a significant rise in spot prices. The propane-to-crude price percentage has climbed from 34% to 44%, moving closer to historical averages. There remains some room for further percentage increases, which supports the stability of propane prices even as crude oil declines. I continue to recommend that customers contract a portion of their heating needs for the upcoming winter. The Farmer’s Almanac is forecasting a colder-than-average winter, and it’s worth noting that the past three winters have been some of the warmest on record. Topping off tanks at current prices is a prudent move.
As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please don’t hesitate to contact us. Have a great weekend!
Best regards,
Jon Crawford