Trade War and Recession Fears Grow

Good afternoon,

WTI Crude prices continue to trade in their narrow range of about $53-57/barrel.  On the supply side, with the current OPEC cuts in place, the Venezuela shut down, and the US slowly shutting down rigs, the market is actually tighter than the price is displaying.  Right now, all eyes and ears are on recession fears due to the trade war with China.  If the world economy slows down, then I don’t expect crude prices to tank much more than below $50/barrel.  So much of the recession fear is baked into the current price.  However, if the trade war starts to wind down and the world economy continues as is, then we could easily experience a $7-10 spike in crude prices.  The FED said that they are willing to act appropriately but not committed to rate cuts and the trade with China does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon.  For now, WTI crude will continue to bounce in mid $50’s.

Retail prices on gasoline and diesel have continued to ease.  Gas prices have fallen below $2.49/gallon in some markets, and diesel has dropped below $2.69.  I expect to see these lower prices at the pump through Labor Day.

Propane prices are at historical lows and inventories remain at historical highs.  We expect propane inventories to hit the largest volume ever recorded.  We encourage everyone to enjoy these low prices with a summer fill and contract for the next heating season.  Please call our office or go online to place an order!

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to give us a call.

Best regards,

Jon Crawford – Pres.

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