Waiting Game

Good morning,

The crude markets are now in a “wait and see” pattern. Little bits of info here and there are moving WTI prices above and below $67/barrel with no clear direction until Trump makes up his mind on the Iran nuclear deal. Missiles in Syria again, as well as small attacks in Saudi Arabia caused a small uptick price, but then the continued increase in U.S. production put the brakes on the rally. We are seeing the highest prices at the pump prior to the last crude oil market collapse in 2014. Therefore, we are going to need a major event to take us higher, but any jitters to cause selling could move WTI prices down over $5/barrel. The market is so fragile right now and rattling with anticipation looking towards the middle of May. So for now, it’s a waiting game and we are all going to pay more at the pump in the meantime.

Retail gasoline prices are approaching $2.70/gallon and diesel prices are around $3.09/gallon. I expect to see these prices continue for at least two to three weeks.

Propane has been unable to really build any inventory due to the cold April. Therefore prices are not dropping as much as expected with the warmer weather on the way. In addition to the lack of building inventory, exports continue to be healthy. Comparing current propane prices to crude prices past, propane currently has good value. Therefore, I don’t think that summer fill prices will be much lower than today’s retail price unless we see WTI crude prices collapse back down to near $60/barrel. Summer fills and next season’s contracts will be released in a couple months. Stay tuned for more info.

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to give us a call.

Best regards,

Jon Crawford – Pres.
Crawford Oil and Propane

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